December 8, 2011 -
COUNTRY FUTURES- Decemver 8, 2011 Livestock Country Comments by Jerry Stowell The meat complex has continued to have a weak tone today with substantialpressure in the lean hog [...]
Articles
Livestock Country Comments by Jerry Stowell
October 31, 2011 -
At 10:51 Dec LC are 35 lower at 11870, November Feeder 14012 down 97, ehile Dec corn is trading at 640 1/2 down 14 1/2. Noon beef saw choice, up 55 at 18865. 1410 was the latest feeder indedx. expect to see 14033 up 23 tonight. Cash fed asking prices are starting at 122. with the board breaking, asking prices will decline with it on hedged cattle. 11760 is the 1st weekly support area for Dec LC with 12050 resistance. We are now in the tightest feed supplies of the fall. While supplies slowly increase, demand should increase as well into early Dec. Weather will be the key from early Dec. into early Jan. Our basis is slightly negative right now. Sell only the strong rallies. Grains Update October 31, 2011 by Darrell Holaday It has been a liquidation day across the board in the commodity sector. A big jump in the US dollar value has put the commodity sector on the defensive. The liquidation has been accentuated today by the MF Global bankruptcy. Customers that clear trades through MF Global are on liquidation only and that long liquidation is adding to the downward momentum. Forecasts of rain in the HRW areas are pressuring wheat. European and Ukraine forecasts remain dry. The US dollar strength is pressuring the energy sector and the MF Global situation is probably hurting the oil sector more than most of the sectors. Of course that is pressuring the grains sector. [...]
Livestock Country Comments by Jerry Stowell
October 11, 2011 -
At 11:10 October LC are 7 lower at 121.90, Oct Feeders up 37 at 140,000, while dec Dec corn is trading 8 3/4 higher at 608 3/4. Noon Beef saw choice up 58 at 184.99, while select was 28 lower at 169.30. Volume was 131 loads. 135.23 was the latest CME Feeder Index. Expect to see 135.96 up 73 tonight. Cash Fed asking prices are mostly 123-124 as we start another week of trading. Our early bird cash call is steady-firm. Futures opened higher off a stronger outside world with the Dow up 275 and the $ Index down 141. The rally however was short lived as selling came in. Packer margins might be part of the problem as they are $67 per head negative. Right now we are short. The Dec LC 126 & 128 calls. Supply side economics say we could test 124-128 but we do not expect higher than that, at least this year. Grains Update October 10, 2011 by Darrell Holaday It has been a higher day through mid-day in the grains, but the sharply higher strength overnight and on the 9:30 opening has not held. Corn has trimmed .12 from the early high, soybeans .15 and wheat .15. The surge in values was part of a big commodity play overnight as the Euro dollar value surged and the US dollar in exact step moved sharply lower. Primarily caused again by reassurance by EU leaders that they would get a plan formalized by the end of the month. November 1 is seen as a critical date. Of course the new plan does include default, but they are supposedly planning to backstop the banks who take significant haircuts on Greek bonds. The rain in the Plains has pressured the wheat from the early highs. There were very good rains in a significant part of Texas and Oklahoma. This will [...]
Livestock Country Comments by Jerry Stowell
September 29, 2011 -
COUNTRY FUTURES- September 29, 2011 Thursday Livestock Country Comments by Jerry Stowell At 10:33am. Oct LC are 5 lower, Dec LC 25 higher, October Feeders steady, while Dec Corn is trading up 2. 132.08 was the latest CME Feeder Index. Expect to see 132.52 up 44 tonight. Bids are 116 with mostly 119-120 ask for Fed Cattle. Expect to see 188 & 118- 119 this week. Futures are fairly quiet but firm so far today. Our trading bias is to buy breaks in Dec LC. For spec accounts, we sold Dec LC 126 call today’s and collected 132 cwt. premium. We will trade the long side of futures against from time to time. Overall we do not expect to see Dec LC to be above 126 when options expire in early Dec but if they are that’s fine especially if you own cattle for that period. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN COMES FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL. EACH INVESTOR MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. WHEN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS, IT IS POSSIBLE TO LOSE MORE THAN THE FULL VALUE OF YOUR ACCOUNT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Share Article | Print Friendly | Comment
Livestock Country Comments by Jerry Stowell
September 19, 2011 -
At 10:24 Oct LC are 75 lower at 117.75, Dec LC 100 lower at 117.97, while October Feeders are trading 102 lower at 136.45. 132.48 was the latest CME Feeder Index. Expect to see 132.33 down 15 tonight. Asking prices for Fed Cattle are 118-119 with no solid bids. Last week’s showlist have a lot of cattle carried into this week. Market feels like 116 this week. Futures are sharply lower for mainly two reasons that being sharply lower outside macro markets and last week’s weaker cash fed fundamentals. We came into this week aggressively short Dec LC at an average price of 119.65. We elected to take some risk off the table for spec accounts as we covered half our shorts at 117.87. We have resting OPEN orders to exit the other half below 117.00 Share Article | Print Friendly | Comment
Livestock Country Comments
September 16, 2011 -
At 10:42 Live Cattle are 40-60 lower, Feeders 55-95 lower, while corn is 6 lower, 132.52 was the latest CME Feeder Index. Cash is trading at 117 today in [...]
Livestock Country Comments
September 16, 2011 -
COUNTRY FUTURES- September 15, 2011 Thursday Livestock Country Comments by Jerry Stowell At 10:16 Oct LC are 72 lower, Dec LC 47 lower, Oct Feeders 45 lower, while Dec corn is trading 11 lower. 132.37 was the latest CME Feeder Index. Expect to see 132.46 up 9 tonight. Bids are 186 North with 190 ask. In the south asking prices are 120 with no solid bid as I write. Feds like 119 unless board rallies hard. We doubled up and pushed all our chips to the center of the table Wednesday as we sold Dec LC at 120.50. Our average sale price is 119.65. We are really not big bears in the cattle at all nor are we big bulls when Dec LC futures are trading above 120. The beef rally has been nothing short of fantastic here in the 1st half of September. Exports remain constant. It’s still our stubborn feeling that the cut-outs have rallied too hard too fast for this time of the year. We will stay short for now. Share Article | Print Friendly | Comment
Livestock Country Comments by Jerry Stowell
September 1, 2011 -
At 10:09 Oct LC are 30 lower at 113.72 while Oct Feeders are 40 lower at 132.32. Corn is trading 7-8 lower. 132.15 was the latest Feeder Index. Expect to see 131.65 down 50 tonight. Cash is 111 bid South with 114 ask. A few cattle traded Wednesday in NE at 178. Expect 112 to mostly 113 this week. Demand will be somewhat limited due to next weeks holiday shortened kill week. For traders we bought the Oct LC today at 113.72. We will take a quick 70 or 80 point profit this week if offered. Share Article | Print Friendly | Comment