USDA World Sugar Outlook – December
December 15, 2011 in Featured Articles, Softs by USDA
On November 17, 2011, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released its latest estimates of world sugar Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD). World sugar continues its recovery since the high deficit year 2008/09. The world sugar surplus (that is, production less consumption) has grown from negative 10.4 million MTRV in 2008/09 to only negative 1.7 million MTRV in 2009/10, due to a rebound in world sugar production. The PSD data released in November show the 2010/11 world sugar surplus at 4.6 million MTRV and the 2011/12 surplus at 8.2 million MTRV.
The change in the world sugar surplus for these 2 years is attributable to lower expected world sugar consumption, especially in India and Brazil. For 2011/12, the sum of predicted production growth in the European Union, Russia, Thailand, Pakistan, the Philippines, and other countries is completely offset by forecast reductions, especially in Brazil.Over the last 4 years, production growth has fueled consumption growth, with stocks remaining at around 30 million MTRV. The world sugar stocks-to-consumption ratio has remained constant at about 19 percent over the period. Even with the recently revised strength in world sugar supplies, significant declines in world sugar prices averaging 22.6 cents per pound since 2009 may be limited by the relatively low level of world sugar stocks.
To read the entire sugar report (PDF format): USDA-Sugar_Dec14
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