Pecuária Comments Mercado de Robert Curto

Março 28, 2012 em Pecuária por Melhor PFG

Motoqueiros:

Colocamos 58 centavos sobre o produto carne de porco na noite passada e agora estão 73 centavos para a semana. A maior parte do rali de 2 dias surgiu quando junho futuros avançada 149 pontos. When futures rally you will almost always see a “bid” lifting pork product.

We have talked the past week about trader psychology shifting to the friendly side in late March or early April as traders anticipate the seasonal advance in pork product that normally starts in the first few weeks of April. With wholesale pork product trading 15% sob no ano passado, this concern has been stronger than most years. Floor traders have been among the solid 2-day buying of June hog futures. The only unhealthy thing this morning for being long June futures is the premium June basis going 284 higher for the first two days of this week. June closed out last week with a premium to the lean hog index of 567 points, and last night, the premium stood at 851 points. While this is still a lot less than the 5-year average premium of 1448, it does hint that if cattle collapse, we could get a selloff in June hog futures.

Nesta época do ano, we only want to be out or long June hog futures. The reason is that it is a problem if we can’t get out of the way of a one-way, down cattle market and negative demand psychology on sky high gasoline worries.

Major bar chart shows in the 9020 para 9090 area with some support at the March low of 9150. I’m lost as to where we can attempt a “naked” long position. Putting first things first, stay away from the short side for the time being.

We are long June hogs against short June cattle and we will be coming to our ‘just reward’ shortly. Keep the faith and hold tight.

Gado:

Choice box beef lost a rather large $1.31 last night at a time of year when traders always look for grilling season pre-bookings putting a bid to beef. We said yesterday that cattle were having a “dead cat bounce” and this surprise decline in choice meat has had the appropriate trader action this morning. If we don’t get good news in beef demand the next several weeks we never will.

Late last November or early December beef packer operating margins went more than $100 per head negative.

We are down an additional $1.97 the first two days of this week on choice box beef, and unless beef packers can buy cash cattle lower this week, their negative margin will be going sharply higher over the next several weeks.

We talked last week that present negative beef demand psychology (gás) would allow June cattle futures to trade at a $4 para $6 discount to the cash cattle. June futures went home 453 discount to the average cash cattle market of $126.50. Should present psychology stay as negative as it now is, we may see a 600- to 750-point discount as a real possibility.

No presente momento, the only way June cattle can hold a 2- or 3-day rally would be a collapse in oil prices and/or good daily box beef volume on up money. This week’s 2-day volume of 366 loads is a step in the right direction, but it is coming on choice beef down $1.97 against being $1.57 higher for the first two days of last year.

It is possible, if national gas prices stay around $4/gallon into summer, that we may be able to take June cattle futures to contract lows around $112 as beef packers must break the cash cattle market by $3 para $5 in the near term to get a better daily operating margin.

We are short June cattle against long June hogs anytime June cattle trades 2800 to 2950 sobre os porcos de Junho. There should be a easy 400 to 500 points in this trade unless oil and gas prices collapse into summer.

You may, ou não pode, have gotten out of your short June cattle last week – the choice was yours. We got short above $128 em Fevereiro 24 and the trading Gods have been good to us. I’m still hoping we can string together some sort of 200- to 300-point rally the next several weeks for you to re-establish short positions or to add a second unit.

Há um risco substancial de perda de negociar futuros e opções. O desempenho passado não é indicativo de resultados futuros. As informações e os dados neste relatório foram obtidas de fontes consideradas fiáveis. A sua exatidão ou completude não é garantida e entrega da mesma não deve ser considerada como uma oferta ou solicitação de nossa parte no que diz respeito à venda ou compra de quaisquer valores mobiliários ou mercadorias. PFGBEST, seus diretores e conselheiros pode, no decurso normal dos negócios têm posições, que pode ou não concordar com as opiniões expressas neste relatório. Qualquer decisão de comprar ou vender, como resultado das opiniões expressas neste relatório será de inteira responsabilidade da pessoa que autoriza tal transação.

Robert Short
Equipe de Pesquisa PFGBEST
rshort@pfgbest.com