RELATÓRIO DE GADO por Robert Short

Junho 18, 2012 em Pecuária por Melhor PFG

Motoqueiros:

I’m always amazed at retailers as they watch a hog market rally. There is always a rush to cover out-front needs in case futures and product continue higher. We put a large $2.54 on product Friday and are now a whopping $9.33 maior para a semana! I believe this is a 1-week record for pork product.

In the last seven weeks, we have advanced pork product 22.6% higher and taken the pork composite average from 20% under last year to just 1.7% sob no ano passado. An extreme rally of this size will start to see daily/weekly wholesale pork product value to slow. Last week we moved 349 loads of pork and this was almost 22% under the previous week.

Pork processors put $3 para $5 on cash hogs last week, but found their operating margin declining by 14% as they went home Friday with a negative $15.44 against a negative $3.56 last year and positive $7.82 em 2010.

Traders know we are pricing ourselves out of retailer interest, partly because they have allowed a decline in the July futures premium to the lean hog index; it was a positive 748 points two weeks ago and on Friday, the discount was just 119. This goes against a 197 premium last year and a 5-year average premium of 149. A discount of this small size will not influence trading this week.

This should be the high week in hog futures into mid-July or longer. We have a strong seasonal correction in the lean index that usually starts the last week of June. Traders always anticipate this (!) and will not be late week buyers. Whatever we can put on futures today and/or tomorrow should be the near-term top.

Buying hog futures later this week is for clowns, fools and jugglers.

The lean hog index was 509 higher last week and closed at 9421. It is being calculated at something close to 9730 by Wednesday. As I write this, we have July trading 9552, or just 178 discount to where Wednesday’s lean index should be. For this time of year, and extreme product rally that no one saw coming, um 100- to 300-point discount is probable as traders think the product top is sometime this week.

If you did get short July hog futures in the 9345 to 9500 área, I would raise the buy stop from 9537 to 9567 and make July futures trade over 9567 por mais de duas horas. There is a small chance we could close limit-up today, em 9602, so be sure and have a stop in the market. We are short in the correct technical area, but are watching a pork product rally that no one saw coming.

Gado:

Futuros de gado eram 372 lower last week in June and 417 points lower in August. Daily/weekly cattle demand-side fundamentals were decent but nothing special. Choice boxed beef was a tiny 17 cents lower Friday and down a small $1.06 for the week. Select was 85 cents lower Friday and down $1.54 for the week. Ano passado, choice boxed beef was $1.39 higher for the week with select $2.90 mais alto.

Carne escolha caixa está agora em $198, and with the high for the year at $198.80, traders worry that seasonal pressure is coming in boxed beef and that this, por sua vez, will see cash cattle break back into the $112 to $115 área (went home Friday at $118 to $119.) This psychological worry gave the 400-point break in futures last week; traders know June and July are the worst two demand months of the year.

I don’t know anything else to talk about in cattle. We are short two units of June cattle futures as we wait for the normal seasonal correction that started last week to continue into mid-July or later.

From a technical bar chart perspective, June cattle futures will find light chart support in the $114 to $114.60 area with major support in the $111 to $111.50 área. We will need a 2- or 3-day rally to add a third unit.

Há um risco substancial de perda de negociar futuros e opções. O desempenho passado não é indicativo de resultados futuros. As informações e os dados neste relatório foram obtidas de fontes consideradas fiáveis. A sua exatidão ou completude não é garantida e entrega da mesma não deve ser considerada como uma oferta ou solicitação de nossa parte no que diz respeito à venda ou compra de quaisquer valores mobiliários ou mercadorias. PFGBEST, seus diretores e conselheiros pode, no decurso normal dos negócios têm posições, que pode ou não concordar com as opiniões expressas neste relatório. Qualquer decisão de comprar ou vender, como resultado das opiniões expressas neste relatório será de inteira responsabilidade da pessoa que autoriza tal transação.

Robert Short
Equipe de Pesquisa PFGBEST
rshort@pfgbest.com